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G7 Summit Opens in Canada 06/16 06:02
At stake might be the survival of the G7 itself at a time when the Trump
administration has sent mixed signals about whether the president will attend
the November Group of 20 summit in South Africa.
KANANASKIS, Alberta (AP) -- When U.S. President Donald Trump last came to
Canada for a Group of Seven summit, the enduring image was of him seated with
his arms folded defiantly as then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel stared
daggers at him.
If there is a shared mission at this year's G7 summit, which begins Monday
in Canada's Rocky Mountains, it is a desire to minimize any fireworks at a
moment of combustible tensions.
The 2018 summit ended with Trump assailing his Canadian hosts on social
media as he departed on Air Force One, saying he had instructed the U.S.
officials who remained in Quebec to oppose the G7 joint statement endorsed by
the leaders of Japan, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Germany and, of
course, Canada.
"I have instructed our U.S. Reps not to endorse the Communique as we look at
Tariffs on automobiles flooding the U.S. Market!" Trump posted on the site then
known as Twitter.
This time, Trump already has hit several dozen nations with severe tariffs
that risk a global economic slowdown. There is little progress on settling the
wars in Ukraine and Gaza and now a new and escalating conflict between Israel
and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program.
Add to all of that the problems of climate change, immigration, drug
trafficking, new technologies such as artificial intelligence and China's
continued manufacturing superiority and chokehold on key supply chains.
Asked if he planned to announce any trade agreements at the G7 as he left
the White House on Sunday, Trump said: "We have our trade deals. All we have to
do is send a letter, 'This is what you're going to have to pay.' But I think
we'll have a few, few new trade deals."
At stake might be the survival of the G7 itself at a time when the Trump
administration has sent mixed signals about whether the president will attend
the November Group of 20 summit in South Africa.
What Trump opposed at the 2018 summit in Quebec wasn't just tariffs, but a
focus on having alliances with a shared set of standards seeking to shape
policies.
"The big dispute in Quebec were the references to the rules-based
international order and that's where that famous photo comes from," said Peter
Boehm, Canada's counselor at the 2018 G7 summit in Quebec and a veteran of six
G7 summits. "I think it gave everyone the idea that G7s were maybe not business
as usual."
The German, U.K., Japanese and Italian governments have each signaled a
belief that a friendly relationship with Trump this year can reduce the
likelihood of outbursts.
"Well, I have got a good relationship with President Trump, and that's
important," U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Saturday as he flew to Canada.
There is no plan for a joint statement this year from the G7, a sign that
the Trump administration sees no need to build a shared consensus with fellow
democracies if it views such a statement as contrary to its goals of new
tariffs, more fossil fuel production and a Europe that is less dependent on the
U.S. military.
"The Trump administration almost certainly believes that no deal is better
than a bad deal," said Caitlin Welsh, a director at the Center for Strategic
and International Studies think tank who was part of Trump's team for the G7 in
Trump's first term.
The White House has stayed decidedly mum about its goals for the G7, which
originated as a 1973 finance ministers' meeting to address the oil crisis and
steadily evolved into a yearly summit that is meant to foster personal
relationships among world leaders and address global problems.
The G7 even briefly expanded to the G8 with Russia as a member, only for
Russia to be expelled in 2014 after annexing Crimea and taking a foothold in
Ukraine that preceded its aggressive 2022 invasion of that nation.
Trump will have at least three scheduled bilateral meetings during the
summit with other world leaders while in Canada, staring on Monday morning with
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. The U.S. president is also expected to
have bilateral meetings with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, according to an administration official.
The U.S. president has imposed 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos, all
of which have disproportionately hit Japan. Trump is also charging a 10% tax on
imports from most countries, though he could raise rates on July 9, after the
90-day negotiating period set by him would expire.
The United Kingdom reached a trade framework with the U.S. that included
quotas to protect against some tariffs, but the 10% baseline would remain as
the Trump administration is banking on tariff revenues to help cover the cost
of its income tax cuts.
Canada and Mexico face separate tariffs of as much as 25% that Trump put
into place under the auspices of stopping fentanyl smuggling, through some
products are still protected under the 2020 U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement signed
during Trump's first term.
The Trump administration has insisted that its broad tariffs will produce
trade agreements that box out China, though it's unclear how antagonizing trade
partners would make them want to strengthen their reliance on the U.S. Carney,
the Canadian leader, has been outspoken in saying his country can no longer
look to the U.S. as an enduring friend.
That might leave Trump with the awkward task of wanting to keep his tariffs
in place while also trying to convince other countries that they're better off
siding with the U.S. than China.
"Trump will try to coordinate the group against China's economic coercion,"
Josh Lipsky, chair of international economics at the Atlantic Council, wrote in
an analysis. "But the rest of the leaders may turn back to Trump and say that
this kind of coordination, which is at the heart of why the G7 works, would be
easier if he weren't imposing tariffs on his allies."
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