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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/16 10:53

   Corn Leads Positive Trade at Midday

   Corn is 4 to 5 cents higher; soybeans are 3 to 5 cents higher and wheat is 
mixed. Outside markets are lightly positive. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 260 higher. The dollar 
index is 5 higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with 
crude up 0.20. Livestock trade has cattle higher with hogs mostly higher. 
Precious metals are weaker with gold $11.30 lower.


   Corn is 4 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade trying to get a second 
positive day to close out the week and ease oversold conditions that have built 
post USDA reports. The weather forecast looks to be a non-issue in the near 
term for most with rains slated for many areas and September extended forecasts 
showing warmer-than-normal temps for the belt, curbing frost concerns for the 
moment. Ethanol margins remain poor with blenders seeing the most short-term 
benefits with ethanol futures edging higher this morning. Basis remains mixed 
overall. On the September nearby chart, support is likely the $3.59 low with 
the lower Bollinger Band at $3.57 below that. Resistance is the 10-day at 
$3.89, reflecting the break this week.


   Soybean trade is 4 to 6 cents higher with the firmer overnight action 
continuing, with light follow through during the day session. Meal is $1.00 to 
$2.00 higher and oil is 5 to 15 points higher. NOPA crush came in Thursday at 
168.093 million bushels, much above the 155.826 mb estimate. Basis remains flat 
overall. The Brazilian real is recovering off of fresh lows scored Thursday and 
the Argentina peso still at rock-bottom prices. The weather looks to be a 
short-term non-issue for soybeans as well. USDA announced 296,500 metric tons 
sold to unknown for new crop. The September chart support is the lower 
Bollinger Band at $8.43 below that. The next level of resistance is the 10-day 
at $8.64, which we are testing at midday.


   Wheat trade is narrowly mixed at midday, with trade looking to see if the 
spread reversal for KC sticks from Thursday, along with oversold conditions 
starting to ease. The corn/hard red winter wheat spread has narrowed 6 cents 
this morning, after getting back to 30 on Thursday. KC wheat is now back to 
competitive on the world market trading at a discount to the lowest offers in 
the most recent GASC tender. Spring wheat harvest should expand with winter 
wheat just about wrapped up, with Europe continuing to move toward spring wheat 
harvest as well. The September KC chart support is the new low at $3.80 3/4 
with the first resistance the $4.00 area.


   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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